Wu Yingqiu: The development of new energy vehicles is faster than imagined

I have always been cautious and reserved about the development of new energy vehicles. However, after reading the Paris Motor Show that just concluded, I would rather review this issue again.

First, the development of new energy vehicles may be faster than we think. Although I still think that it still has some distance from us, the clarity of the development goals of new energy vehicles has obviously increased.

First of all, the understanding of new energy vehicles by multinational companies tends to be consistent. I remember that at the North American Auto Show two years ago, Daimler Chairman Cai Che said in an exclusive interview that in the next 20 or 30 years, traditional cars will still be the mainstream. At this auto show, Cai Che said unconventionally that the current Paris Motor Show will be the last auto show of traditional cars. In March this year, Volkswagen shouted the goal of "To be the world's first electric car in 2018". At that time, many people, including myself, could not understand that the public had strong strengths and advantages in the traditional internal combustion engine. Now that electric vehicles have been placed at such a high position to consider, is it a waste of time? I noticed that during the current Paris Motor Show, no multinational company did not put the development of new energy vehicles at the most important strategic level.

On the basis of this trend towards a consistent strategy, the tactical considerations of all companies are basically the same, that is, the development of new energy vehicles is a two-step development. The first step is to use “integrated solutions” (such as Mercedes-Benz’s) before 2012. "Blue efficiency", BMW's "Efficient Dynamics", Volkswagen's "Bluemotion", etc.) or hybrid technology to meet the EU requirements of 120 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. The so-called "comprehensive solution to Fang'an" is through the innovation of traditional internal combustion technologies, such as turbocharging, direct injection in cylinders, diesel power, and intelligent start-stop technologies to meet EU regulatory requirements. At the auto show, almost all the side doors of the show cars were tagged with carbon dioxide emissions label, which was difficult to see in the previous auto show; the second step was to meet the EU's per-km CO2 emissions by 2020. 95 grams standard. Although everyone believes that the final technology must be a hydrogen-powered fuel cell, from the perspective of the Paris Motor Show, the company’s technology focuses on pure electric vehicles. From the perspective of the main technical data of batteries, motors, and electric controls, the level of each individual is basically the same. One level. In solving the problem of short range of electric vehicles, everyone is basically inclined to adopt technology. At the auto show, each company has an electric car, and all parameters such as charging method, time, and cruising range are clearly marked.

It is worth mentioning that in exploring the business model, in addition to relying on government taxation, subsidies, and other methods that people have always thought of in the past, companies have begun to shift their focus to using leasing to reduce the burden on consumers.

The second is the domestic new energy automobile industry, and the pressure to realize “curve passing” is not small. First of all, although the country has passed the signal of the development of electric vehicles through the subsidy policy promulgated in June, the understanding of the industry is still inconsistent and the controversy still exists. Second, our core technology of electric vehicles has not been completely overcome. Not long ago, Zhang Zhangxiao, director of the Institute of Automotive Engineering, said that "more than 80% of the battery core components need to be imported." BYD, known as the master of the battery core technology, is still difficult to see its "mountainous fog mask". Even if we face the recent limit of 120g/km, we can't get much mature solutions. Turbocharged, in-cylinder direct injection, and hybrid technologies are not highly autonomous.

What matters even more is the gap. According to a survey conducted during the Paris Motor Show, 70% of European consumers are willing to purchase new energy vehicles. This is the social foundation that we do not have. China's current promotion of new energy vehicles has not gone beyond the thinking of relying on government subsidies, and consumer support and recognition have not yet been established. Everyone knows that battles without mass foundations are hard to win.