On March 15th, the Third Session of the 12th National People's Congress held a press conference in the Great Hall of the People. In response to questions from Chinese and foreign journalists, Premier Li Keqiang expressed his attitude and determination to declare war and smog and to stop fighting without aim. Presumably, under the resolute statement of the Prime Minister, the pressures on environmental protection indicators faced by various provinces and cities will be very large. Under strong pressure, all provinces and cities will inevitably adopt more rigorous measures to cut the work of all walks of life. Car exhaust, which is considered to be an important culprits of smog, will be listed as a key target for governance. Although the upgrade of emissions is fundamental, but to solve the most difficult problems, it is also the most direct effect, which is the limit of purchase restrictions.
New purchases have severely weakened the potential of the car purchase market. Currently, seven cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Shenzhen have implemented purchase restrictions. It is rumored that Wuhan is the next city to purchase. It can be said that more and more cities have adopted restrictions, and various restrictions on measures are numerous. The author believes that the restrictions on major cities may not only be the so-called "lazy" government, but the more important reason lies in the pressure of indicators in various aspects. Under the current situation, China's urban structure determines its traffic congestion problems cannot be achieved overnight. The environmental pressure brought about by the extensive economic growth mode can not be significantly improved. These helpless actions will force the government to only push the big stick to a car that seems to have direct effect. If the car is less, it will naturally ease the congestion temporarily. Naturally, we can see the decline of exhaust emissions immediately. Therefore, the author believes that even if the public opinion is more criticized for the restriction of purchase restrictions, there is no way to prevent local governments from adopting the most direct and simple way. To fulfill the requirements of the environmental indicators faced.
Not only the implementation of auto purchases, but also the lottery index and the winning rate are gradually decreasing. Take Beijing as an example. At the end of 2014, Beijing announced the 2015 passenger car lottery plan. The number of ordinary passenger cars was reduced from 130,000 to 120,000. The distribution ratio of individuals and units is calculated, and the number of allocation indicators for each period is 17,600 (this year is 19,000), and will shrink year by year. The latest results of the lottery show that the signing ratio of Beijing's ordinary passenger car is 151:1, and the winning rate is 0.66%. In this way, almost one in 200 people can buy a customer. For a city like Beijing with a population of more than 20 million, if there is a willingness to buy a car of 1 million (according to the implementation of the purchase limit in Beijing before the purchase of 67 in 2009) More than 10,000, combined with the increase in the overall level of consumption estimates, then the number of vehicles purchased will be reduced by more than 800,000 than the amount of willingness to purchase, the potential of the car purchasing power market is greatly weakened, so the author believes that the potential of the Chinese automotive market is limited, And as the number of restricted purchases increases, the number of cities will become lower and lower. Although the gradual rise of the third- and fourth-tier cities and towns and even the rural market still has great potential to be tapped, due to the slightly inferior consumption power of these people, their demand for automobiles may be more in the low-end products. On the other hand, the profit brought to the car companies should be much lower than that of the first- and second-tier cities.
Accelerated expansion of automakers to expand production capacity Recently, the overcapacity of Chinese autos and the expansion of automakers have become a hot topic in the media. The voice said that China's auto production capacity will reach 40 million this year, and the market cannot be eliminated. And this estimate may be due to the "satisfaction" of the major car companies. Since the end of last year, the major car companies have thrown out the news of the expansion of production capacity, and intensively put into action.
At the end of last year, Beijing Automobile Co., Ltd. announced that in order to expand production scale, Beijing Hyundai has signed an enterprise entry agreement with the Hebei Cangzhou Municipal Government and the Chongqing Liangjiang New District Management Committee. The two major plants will begin construction in 2015 and are expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2016. It is reported that the two factories have a capacity of 300,000 units, which will increase the total production capacity of Beijing Hyundai by 600,000 units.
At the same time, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced that its new plant will be completed and put into production at the same time, and the site is also in the mountain city of Chongqing. It is reported that the first phase of SAIC-GM-Wuling Chongqing Branch has a total investment of 6.6 billion yuan, covering an area of ​​1.6 million square meters, with an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles and 400,000 engines.
The project for the expansion of the capacity of Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd. has been officially approved in Wuhan. According to the data, the location of the third plant of Dongfeng Honda is located in the Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone, and the planned capacity of the third plant is 240,000. In addition, the first phase of Shanghai General Motors Wuhan Branch has also been completed and put into production. It is reported that Shanghai General Motors Wuhan Branch, located in Jiangxia District of Wuhan City, has a total investment of 7 billion yuan in the first phase of the project, covering an area of ​​2.38 square kilometers and a production capacity of 240,000 units.
The Changan Ford Harbin plant project has been “confirmedâ€, and the four major workshop reconstruction projects of the plant have started bidding. According to Changan Ford's plan, the new plant will be put into operation in 2016, with a total investment of 6.597 billion yuan. In addition, Dongfeng Nissan's Dalian plant was announced to be put into operation some time ago. The first phase investment was 5 billion yuan, the first phase capacity was 150,000 vehicles, and the second phase was completed with a capacity of 300,000 vehicles. In addition, earlier this year, FAW-Volkswagen decided to establish two new production bases in East China and North China in Qingdao and Tianjin to expand production capacity to meet market demand.
At the same time, independent brands such as Changan, Great Wall and BYD are accelerating their production capacity in recent years.
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The forced shrinking of the consumer market is in stark contrast to the continued expansion of the sales market, according to industry insiders. Overcapacity can find some solutions. With the arrival of the buyer's market, automakers need to work with dealers to develop potential market demand. In addition, automakers need to increase their efforts in the automotive aftermarket. For example, the penetration rate of auto finance in the United States is as high as 90%, while at present, there is only 20% in China. Auto finance has a lot of room for excavation. Similarly, the promotion of used car transactions can also be promoted. New car sales.
In any case, Chinese cars have to face the slight increase in the new normal, and too fast capacity expansion may really make the Chinese market too much.
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